Total VeteranWEF, McKinsey, BLS and Skills England Job Forecasts Compared: What Each Measures
Four major forecasters measure four different things: employer plans, technical potential, official US projections and UK skills demand. Here is what each says and where they agree.
- The WEF surveys employers (net 78 million jobs by 2030), McKinsey models technical potential (57% of US work hours) and BLS counts jobs (3.5% growth to 2035).
- All sources agree on growth in care and digital work and on decline in clerical roles.
- McKinsey states its 57 percent figure is technical potential, not a forecast of job losses.
- UK projections use a 2020 base year (DfE) or a 2025 base year (Skills England), so check the edition before comparing.
- Use broad forecasts for direction and occupational tables for decisions.
The World Economic Forum, McKinsey, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Skills England all publish job forecasts, and they measure four different things. The WEF surveys employers about their plans. McKinsey estimates what technology could do. BLS projects official employment by occupation. Skills England and the Department for Education project UK demand for skills. Their headline numbers cannot be compared directly, but their direction agrees on care, digital and construction growth and on clerical decline.
What each source measures
| Source and latest edition | What it measures | Region and horizon | Headline figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 (January 2025) | Employer survey: over 1,000 companies across 22 industries and 55 economies describe their expected hiring, skills and automation plans | Global, to 2030 | 170 million jobs created and 92 million displaced, a net gain of 78 million; 22% of jobs disrupted; nearly 40% of job skills set to change |
| McKinsey Global Institute, Agents, robots, and us (25 November 2025) | Technical potential: how much work current technology could in theory automate, built from about 2,000 work activities and about 800 occupations | United States, current technology (no adoption date) | About 57% of US work hours could in theory be automated: 44% by agents and 13% by robots |
| US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2025 to 2035 (27 August 2026) | Official occupation-by-occupation projection of jobs, built on labour force, economic and industry models | United States, 2025 to 2035 | Total employment up 3.5%, or 5.9 million jobs; office and administrative support down 4.0% |
| Skills England, Annual Skills Report 2026 (6 July 2026, updated 6 October 2026) | Projected demand for 150 priority occupations across ten sectors, with the qualification levels needed | UK, 2025 to 2035 | Priority occupations employed 22.9% of the UK workforce in 2025 (7.6 million); about 1.8 million more projected by 2035, a rise of 24% |
| DfE Labour market and skills projections 2020 to 2035 (revised 5 August 2024) | Projected industries, occupations and qualification demand from the NFER Skills Imperative 2035 programme | UK, base year 2020, to 2035 | Total UK employment rise of 7.4% from 2020 to 2035, described by DfE as the most likely trajectory, not a precise prediction |
Why the numbers look so different
McKinsey's 57 percent and BLS's 3.5 percent answer different questions. McKinsey measures hours of work that current technology could perform, and it states that the figure reflects the technical potential for change, not a forecast of job losses. BLS counts jobs, and it expects total employment to grow. The WEF's net gain of 78 million jobs is a survey of employer intentions over five years, so it reflects what companies say they will do, which can change quickly.
Horizon and base year matter as much as method. The WEF looks to 2030, BLS and Skills England look to 2035 from a 2025 base, and the DfE projections look to 2035 from a 2020 base. The DfE work was produced in 2021 and 2022 during the aftermath of Brexit and the pandemic, and the Welsh Government summary of the work advises reading its figures as indicative of likely trends and orders of magnitude.
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Where the sources agree
| Theme | WEF 2025 | BLS 2025 to 2035 | UK (Skills England) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Care and health growth | Care roles, including nursing professionals, see significant growth | Healthcare support +13.3%; home health and personal care aides add 847,300 jobs; nurse practitioners +41.0% | Care workers and home carers are among the largest projected increases |
| Digital and data growth | The press summary reviewed gives no digital growth figure | Data scientists +34.6%; information security analysts +21.0%; software developers +10.2% | Programmers and software development professionals, and IT business analysts, architects and systems designers, are among the largest increases |
| Construction and skilled trades | Construction workers rank among the largest absolute gains | Electricians +9.2%; construction managers +9.1%; industrial machinery mechanics +17.8% | Construction priority occupations +26% to 2035; digital and technologies +27% |
| Clerical and administrative decline | Cashiers and administrative assistants are the fastest-declining roles | Office and administrative support -4.0% (752,100 jobs lost); data entry keyers -25.5% | No decline figure in the annual report text reviewed |
When three independent methods point the same way, the direction is more trustworthy than any one percentage. That holds for care, digital skills, construction and clerical decline. For BLS detail on each occupation, see the 2025 to 2035 BLS outlook with pay tables.
Where they diverge
- Software and programming. BLS projects software developers to add 174,700 jobs (10.2%), while Skills England lists programmers and software development professionals among the occupations with the largest projected increases and notes uncertainty around that projection. AI makes this one of the least settled occupations in either country.
- Early-career effects of AI. The Skills England report cites a study finding that AI-exposed firms reduced total employment by 4.5 percent and junior positions by 5.8 percent, and a 2026 report that graduate job adverts were 45 percent lower in 2025. It also states that other analysis finds no clear evidence that AI is behind the graduate slowdown.
- Employer intent against capability. The WEF found that 41 percent of employers plan to reduce their workforce because of AI, while 77 percent plan to upskill staff. McKinsey's capability estimate says nothing about which employers act or when.
- Exposure against outcome. BLS now publishes four relative AI exposure categories for 831 occupations, and states they do not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects.
Which source answers which question
| Your question | Best source | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Which broad trends will reshape work by 2030? | WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 | It captures what employers say they will do across 55 economies |
| How much of my daily tasks could software or robots handle? | McKinsey Global Institute, November 2025 | It maps technical potential to about 2,000 work activities |
| Is my US target occupation growing, and what does it pay? | BLS Employment Projections and Occupational Outlook Handbook | It gives growth, jobs added, openings and 2025 median pay by occupation |
| Which UK sectors and qualifications will employers need? | Skills England annual skills report and sector assessments, 2026 | It sets out priority occupations, qualification levels and sector demand to 2035 |
| What is the long-run UK occupation mix? | DfE labour market and skills projections | It covers industries, occupations and qualifications by region to 2035 from a 2020 base |
A four-step method for reading any forecast
- Name the quantity. Check whether the figure counts jobs, hours, tasks, employer intentions or workers needing training.
- Check the edition and base year. A 2023 to 2033 projection and a 2025 to 2035 projection describe different periods. Quote the year with the number.
- Move from group to occupation. Use the aggregate for direction and the occupational table for your decision. Within the BLS computer group, information security analysts grow 21.0 percent while network administrators fall 4.1 percent.
- Read the stated assumptions. BLS assumes a full-employment economy, a pace of technology change consistent with the past, and no recession. It describes its figures as more reliable in direction and relative size than in exact values.
Use the WEF and McKinsey for direction and scale of the broad trend. Use BLS or Skills England for the specific occupation you are considering. Use your own labour market data, such as local job adverts and employer contacts, for the final check.
UK readers should note that occupation-level UK data is thinner than the US equivalent, especially for veterans. The UK forecast gap article sets out what exists and what is missing.
What to do this week
- Write down which quantity each forecast you cite measures: jobs, hours, tasks or employer intent.
- Record the edition year and base year beside every figure you reuse.
- Pick your target occupation and find its row in BLS Table 1.3 or Skills England's sector assessment.
- Check whether the occupation sits in a growing, stable or declining group in at least two sources.
- Read the assumptions section of any forecast before you rely on a single percentage.
Questions people ask
What is the difference between the WEF Future of Jobs Report and BLS projections?
Does the McKinsey 57 percent figure mean 57 percent of jobs will disappear?
Which job forecast is the most reliable for planning a career?
Are UK job forecasts as detailed as US ones?
- World Economic Forum, "Future of Jobs Report 2025: 78 million new job opportunities by 2030" (January 2025). https://www.weforum.org/press/2025/01/future-of-jobs-report-2025-78-million-new-job-opportunities-by-2030-but-urgent-upskilling-needed-to-prepare-workforces/
- McKinsey Global Institute, "Agents, robots, and us: Skill partnerships in the age of AI" (25 November 2025). https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/agents-robots-and-us-skill-partnerships-in-the-age-of-ai
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employment Projections: 2025-35" (27 August 2026). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employment Projections frequently asked questions". https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "AI exposure categories" (2026). https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm
- Skills England and DWP, "Skills England annual skills report 2026" (6 July 2026, updated 6 October 2026). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skills-england-annual-skills-report-and-sectoral-skills-needs-assessments-2026/skills-england-annual-skills-report-2026
- Department for Education, "Labour market and skills projections: 2020 to 2035" (updated 5 August 2024). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/labour-market-and-skills-projections-2020-to-2035
- Welsh Government, "Skills Imperative 2035: Wales summary" (16 October 2025). https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/statistics-and-research/2025-10/skills-imperative-2035-labour-market-and-skills-projections-for-the-uk.pdf
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